Reading your results

After you click Solve Allocation Plan, the app runs thousands of simulation paths and displays cross-sectional summaries. This guide walks through each section so you know what you are looking at. Unless otherwise noted, all charts display cross-sectional percentiles at each age rather than tracking individual simulation paths

Plan Summary metrics

The top row of metrics summarizes the solver outcome. Paths that never retire are assigned the plan end age when calculating summary statistics.

• Mean Retirement Age — average estimated retirement age across all paths.
• P-90 Retirement Age — 90% of paths retire at or before this age. This is a quick stress-testing metric to compare your target retirement age against the simulated age under most scenarios.
• Success Rate — fraction of paths that retire before the retirement goal.
• Retirement Goal — your latest acceptable retirement age from the sidebar.
• Median SS Claim Age (when SS enabled) — typical claiming age across paths that claim.

Stock / Bond Glide Path

This chart shows median stock and bond percentages from the median retirement age through plan end age.

• Stock (median) — share of portfolio wealth in stocks
• Bond (median) — share in bonds (pre-retirement wealth; post-retirement reflects the bond ladder allocation)
• Age in bonds (dotted) — conventional benchmark (bond % = age). Not part of this model — visual comparison only.

Rising bond share after retirement usually reflects SR glide: converting stock gains into guaranteed ladder income, not an age-based rule.

Charts start at median retirement age.

Security Ratio Glide Path

This chart plots SR = Guaranteed Income ÷ Income Capacity:

• Median SR with shaded P25–P75 band — spread across paths at each age
• SR target (dashed red) — post-retirement glide from SR₀ toward 100%

One-way lock-in means SR generally tracks or approaches the target from below as stock transfers add guaranteed income. Wide bands indicate path-dependent market outcomes.

Retirement Age Distribution

A histogram of estimated retirement age for every path, with vertical lines for your retirement goal (red dashed) and P-90 (orange dotted).

Use this to assess tail risk: a long right tail means many paths retire late even if the mean looks fine. A pile-up at plan end age suggests many paths never achieved readiness.

Income Forecast

Interval table

Rows are ages from chart start through plan end. Columns show downside (p25) and baseline (p50) for:

• SS — claimed benefits when enabled
• Bond — guaranteed ladder income
• Stock — Income Capacity from stock sleeve
• Total — sum of components

Total figures at each percentile are the sum of the components so that each row reconciles exactly. As a result, the reported Total percentile may differ slightly from the percentile of total income computed directly from the simulations

All figures are real dollars per year.

Fan charts

• Total income — median with 25th–75th percentile band
• Component chart — median SS (if any), bond, and stock annuitized income over age

Important: Percentiles are cross-sectional at each age — the p25 total at age 75 is not necessarily the same simulation path as the p25 bond line. The table uses the same methodology. For path-consistent stories, the model would need single-path drill-down (not in the current UI).

Income charts start at median estimated retirement age (or retirement goal if no path retires) because pre-retirement income display focuses on accumulation, not retirement paychecks.

The comfortable target line in prose is your desired income — compare median total to that level post-retirement.

Interpreting feasibility warnings

If the solver cannot meet P-90 ≤ goal, you still see best-effort results. Treat them as diagnostic, not a green light. Try:

• Lower Desired income or SR₀
• Increase Contributions or Current balance
• Delay Retirement Goal
• Enable SS if realistic and not yet included

Re-solve after each change to map sensitivities.

Technical reference

For formulas, gamma table details, and limitation lists, see MODEL.md. These articles explain how to read the app; MODEL.md is the engineer's spec.

Start over: Why this planner exists